Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260527 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  24.6  20.7  16.8  24.8  24.1  19.8  10.6  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  107.0 116.0 119.0 118.0 106.0  91.0  68.0  53.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 107.0  93.0 110.0  71.0  17.0  21.0  24.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.7%        6.0%        4.9%
 25kt / 24h       38.0%       55.6%       46.8%
 30kt / 24h       18.8%       32.8%       25.8%
 35kt / 24h        7.0%       31.1%       19.1%
 40kt / 24h        3.8%       29.7%       16.7%
 45kt / 36h       39.8%       65.9%       52.9%
 55kt / 36h       27.3%       42.8%       35.1%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       46.1%       44.0%
 70kt / 48h       25.2%       40.9%       33.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       69.0%       65.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP062026 260527 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.70    136.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  24.6  20.7  16.8  24.8  24.1  19.8  10.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  75.0  76.0  76.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  76.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -5.0  -1.0  -2.0   0.0  -3.0  -6.0  -3.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%