Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260528 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     57.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  21.0  20.4  22.0  23.6  20.6  15.6  12.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 121.0 119.0 114.0 106.0  86.0  66.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 125.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    85.0  77.0 112.0 120.0  99.0  25.0  20.0  43.0  F  N  F  F  F  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        9.6%        7.1%
 25kt / 24h       47.0%       65.2%       56.1%
 30kt / 24h       21.7%       45.5%       33.6%
 35kt / 24h       12.7%       45.3%       29.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       39.3%       20.7%
 45kt / 36h       38.9%       74.2%       56.5%
 55kt / 36h       26.3%       55.7%       41.0%
 55kt / 48h       41.9%       56.4%       49.1%
 70kt / 48h       25.4%       52.9%       39.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       78.8%       70.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP062026 260528 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    141.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.0  21.0  20.4  22.0  23.6  20.6  15.6  12.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  71.0  74.0  72.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%