Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260528 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  18.0  21.2  24.8  24.6  25.3  14.8  15.6  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  118.0 122.0 123.0 120.0 112.0 106.0  81.0  58.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    92.0 110.0  98.0  70.0  17.0  21.0  25.0  37.0  F  F  F  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.4%        3.4%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h       24.4%       40.2%       32.3%
 30kt / 24h       10.5%       20.6%       15.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       18.5%       11.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%       15.5%        8.0%
 45kt / 36h       19.7%       45.5%       32.6%
 55kt / 36h       12.3%       22.7%       17.5%
 55kt / 48h       48.4%       29.6%       39.0%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       21.6%       24.1%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       59.8%       61.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP062026 260528 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00    135.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.1  18.0  21.2  24.8  24.6  25.3  14.8  15.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  68.0  68.0  71.0  70.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%