Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260528 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    135.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     53.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.7  20.6  21.2  21.2  23.4  17.8  11.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 119.0 115.0 115.0 109.0  92.0  64.0  48.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 127.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  69.0  82.0  50.0  30.0  16.0  35.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.2%        9.4%        7.8%
 25kt / 24h       38.2%       55.2%       46.7%
 30kt / 24h       21.0%       35.8%       28.4%
 35kt / 24h       13.2%       34.2%       23.7%
 40kt / 24h        2.2%       31.8%       17.0%
 45kt / 36h       34.8%       60.7%       47.7%
 55kt / 36h       25.8%       39.4%       32.6%
 55kt / 48h       46.4%       40.1%       43.3%
 70kt / 48h       26.6%       32.3%       29.5%
 65kt / 72h       60.0%       63.9%       61.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP062026 260528 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.80    135.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  19.7  20.6  21.2  21.2  23.4  17.8  11.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  70.0  71.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0  -5.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%