Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260528 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  19.1  20.5  22.5  22.0  17.8  10.1  12.9  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0 111.0 107.0 110.0  91.0  70.0  50.0  27.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 122.0  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  82.0  51.0  30.0  15.0  17.0  37.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.8%       10.9%        9.8%
 25kt / 24h       38.9%       55.0%       47.0%
 30kt / 24h       22.5%       36.5%       29.5%
 35kt / 24h       13.8%       35.6%       24.7%
 40kt / 24h        4.3%       33.3%       18.8%
 45kt / 36h       33.6%       55.4%       44.5%
 55kt / 36h       23.9%       33.0%       28.4%
 55kt / 48h       49.4%       38.5%       43.9%
 70kt / 48h       25.6%       27.4%       26.5%
 65kt / 72h       50.6%       52.8%       51.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP062026 260528 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.70    134.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  19.1  20.5  22.5  22.0  17.8  10.1  12.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  71.0  71.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -4.0  -4.0   1.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%