Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260529 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    133.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     43.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.6  24.1  20.8  20.3  12.8   7.8  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  111.0 108.0 104.0 101.0  71.0  53.0  33.0  18.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 100.5  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    83.0  51.0  30.0  30.0  26.0  35.0  31.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.6%        8.5%        8.0%
 25kt / 24h       30.4%       46.0%       38.2%
 30kt / 24h       18.7%       27.6%       23.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.0%       26.2%       18.6%
 40kt / 24h        3.0%       25.5%       14.2%
 45kt / 36h       27.8%       45.5%       36.6%
 55kt / 36h       19.7%       24.1%       21.9%
 55kt / 48h       47.5%       33.9%       40.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       22.8%       24.0%
 65kt / 72h       38.6%       39.6%       39.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.32

 WP062026 260529 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.40    133.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.0  19.6  24.1  20.8  20.3  12.8   7.8  15.4  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  71.0  71.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   0.0  -4.0  -4.0  -2.0   1.0  -3.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%