Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260529 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     39.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  17.5  24.4  22.5  12.3  10.8  11.9  16.1  F  F  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  108.0 111.0 101.0  92.0  64.0  38.0  23.0   7.0  F  F  F  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 112.9 100.5  86.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  34.0  27.0  19.0  26.0   2.0  26.0  60.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  16.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.2%        7.4%        5.8%
 25kt / 24h       20.4%       38.3%       29.3%
 30kt / 24h       12.1%       22.7%       17.4%
 35kt / 24h        7.5%       20.7%       14.1%
 40kt / 24h        1.1%       19.0%       10.0%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%       40.7%       31.8%
 55kt / 36h       15.7%       20.6%       18.2%
 55kt / 48h       44.1%       31.1%       37.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.9%       18.5%       21.7%
 65kt / 72h       28.2%       27.6%       27.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.24

 WP062026 260529 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    132.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.3  17.5  24.4  22.5  12.3  10.8  11.9  16.1  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -6.0  -6.0  -3.0   3.0   0.0  16.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%