Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062026 260529 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 131.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 34.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.0 17.5 21.2 20.2 11.9 11.0 13.8 22.2 F F N N F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 105.0 101.0 92.0 71.0 53.0 27.0 13.0 0.0 F F F N N U U U Potential [kt] 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 95.5 88.0 76.1 N N N N N N N U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 36.0 65.0 43.0 72.0 38.0 30.0 45.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 73.0 74.0 77.0 75.0 71.0 66.0 N N N N F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -5.0 -2.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 21.0 F F F N N N N VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 11.3% 14.3% 12.8% 25kt / 24h 35.5% 53.6% 44.6% 30kt / 24h 23.2% 37.7% 30.5% 35kt / 24h 16.6% 37.4% 27.0% 40kt / 24h 5.1% 37.4% 21.3% 45kt / 36h 35.3% 52.4% 43.8% 55kt / 36h 24.5% 31.4% 27.9% 55kt / 48h 45.6% 35.6% 40.6% 70kt / 48h 25.2% 24.4% 24.8% 65kt / 72h 19.7% 22.8% 21.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.16 WP062026 260529 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.50 131.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 122.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.0 17.5 21.2 20.2 11.9 11.0 13.8 22.2 U N N N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 70.0 73.0 74.0 77.0 75.0 71.0 66.0 N N N N U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -6.0 -5.0 -2.0 3.0 3.0 1.0 21.0 U U U N N N N VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%