Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260529 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     52.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     37.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  21.2  20.2  20.7  12.4  13.8  15.5  30.1  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  101.0  92.0  71.0  59.0  38.0  23.0   1.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 102.9  83.0  76.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  65.0  43.0  43.0  68.0  29.0  64.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  12.0  39.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.0%       21.4%       21.2%
 25kt / 24h       47.6%       62.1%       54.8%
 30kt / 24h       35.2%       50.9%       43.1%
 35kt / 24h       27.1%       50.9%       39.0%
 40kt / 24h       12.6%       50.9%       31.7%
 45kt / 36h       41.8%       60.8%       51.3%
 55kt / 36h       29.2%       41.5%       35.3%
 55kt / 48h       46.3%       33.1%       39.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       25.3%       25.2%
 65kt / 72h        9.5%       13.2%       11.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP062026 260529 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.70    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  21.2  20.2  20.7  12.4  13.8  15.5  30.1  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  67.0  69.0  68.0  68.0  72.0  72.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   7.0  12.0  39.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%