Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260530 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.1  16.0  13.0  18.6  23.2  26.8  26.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   82.0  72.0  61.0  49.0  28.0  14.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 109.3  87.4  71.0  61.5  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  53.0  60.0  75.0   9.0  59.0  43.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  20.0  27.0  27.0  F  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       23.5%       23.3%       23.4%
 25kt / 24h       56.4%       70.2%       63.3%
 30kt / 24h       43.7%       65.0%       54.3%
 35kt / 24h       39.1%       65.0%       52.0%
 40kt / 24h       17.1%       65.0%       41.0%
 45kt / 36h       36.2%       56.7%       46.5%
 55kt / 36h       24.7%       38.6%       31.7%
 55kt / 48h       30.6%       20.8%       25.7%
 70kt / 48h       15.6%       14.7%       15.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        5.0%        3.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP062026 260530 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.50    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.5  20.1  16.0  13.0  18.6  23.2  26.8  26.7  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  70.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0   1.0  20.0  27.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%