Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260530 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     49.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  16.1  12.9  12.8  18.7  23.5  29.5  38.9  N  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   71.0  61.0  49.0  34.0  18.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0  90.1  87.9  68.0  57.7  43.0  34.3  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  60.0  75.0  57.0  19.0  72.0  14.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  70.0  75.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   6.0  18.0  33.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       60.4%       39.0%       49.7%
 25kt / 24h       68.5%       75.6%       72.1%
 30kt / 24h       68.5%       75.6%       72.1%
 35kt / 24h       68.5%       75.6%       72.1%
 40kt / 24h       30.6%       75.6%       53.1%
 45kt / 36h       38.9%       51.8%       45.4%
 55kt / 36h       27.0%       34.4%       30.7%
 55kt / 48h       22.5%       13.0%       17.7%
 70kt / 48h        9.8%        9.2%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.46

 WP062026 260530 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.30    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  16.1  12.9  12.8  18.7  23.5  29.5  38.9  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  71.0  71.0  67.0  70.0  75.0  79.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   6.0  18.0  33.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%