Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062026 260530 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 129.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 66.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 48.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 14.5 15.5 21.9 24.4 29.0 34.5 55.1 F F F N N N U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 61.0 49.0 41.0 28.0 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 100.0 99.3 87.9 77.4 61.0 51.5 32.0 32.0 N N N U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 38.0 24.0 58.0 39.0 80.0 38.0 38.0 68.0 N U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 60.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 68.0 71.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 22.0 40.0 52.0 48.0 N N N N VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 21.2% 20.3% 20.8% 25kt / 24h 32.4% 45.1% 38.8% 30kt / 24h 28.3% 39.0% 33.7% 35kt / 24h 28.3% 39.0% 33.7% 40kt / 24h 6.0% 38.7% 22.3% 45kt / 36h 13.7% 18.4% 16.1% 55kt / 36h 7.0% 7.6% 7.3% 55kt / 48h 9.5% 3.4% 6.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.20 WP062026 260530 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.30 129.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 65. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 65.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 138.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.1 14.5 15.5 21.9 24.4 29.0 34.5 55.1 N U U N N N F VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 60.0 67.0 66.0 65.0 68.0 71.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 -1.0 0.0 22.0 40.0 52.0 48.0 N N N N VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1%