Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062026 260531 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.90 128.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 70.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 40.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 124.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.2 20.6 20.4 22.3 31.7 34.0 53.2 46.4 F N N N U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 36.0 29.0 19.0 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.1 74.4 64.8 54.3 46.5 38.0 25.9 10.8 N U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 58.0 39.0 35.0 80.0 38.0 38.0 68.0 100.0 N N N N N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 68.0 67.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 73.0 64.0 61.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 10.0 22.0 49.0 54.0 40.0 -2.0 N N U VU VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.6% 16.1% 17.4% 25kt / 24h 18.1% 24.7% 21.4% 30kt / 24h 15.4% 19.8% 17.6% 35kt / 24h 15.4% 19.8% 17.6% 40kt / 24h 3.9% 17.9% 10.9% 45kt / 36h 4.6% 7.3% 5.9% 55kt / 36h 2.2% 2.5% 2.3% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.48 WP062026 260531 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.90 128.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 70.