Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062026 260601 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 127.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 98.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.2 37.9 50.4 58.7 56.9 59.7 71.4 76.9 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 45.5 44.3 33.7 26.6 19.1 12.3 6.3 6.8 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 76.0 87.0 102.0 90.0 137.0 58.0 79.0 10.0 N F F F VF N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 70.0 67.0 65.0 58.0 56.0 57.0 55.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 58.0 40.0 31.0 44.0 71.0 39.0 0.0 -4.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.24 WP062026 260601 18UTC Storm Located at : 27.90 127.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.