Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062026 260602 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 135.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 136.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 51.7 55.8 71.3 78.5 89.5 78.9 85.0 80.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 27.6 18.4 10.9 5.3 6.6 10.5 11.3 10.5 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 141.0 164.0 99.0 118.0 79.0 -8.0 11.0 -26.0 VF VF F F N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 54.0 50.0 49.0 45.0 45.0 50.0 51.0 N U U U VU VU U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 86.0 81.0 51.0 -2.0 -8.0 -12.0 -28.0 U VU VU VU N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 20.52 WP062026 260602 18UTC Storm Located at : 33.30 135.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.