Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260603 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        55.0  66.4  68.1  73.4  83.3  79.9  86.7  85.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         24.0  16.3  17.2  18.2  15.9  17.2  17.2  18.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   136.0 107.0 119.0 107.0   5.0  37.0 -30.0 -40.0 VF  F  F  F  U  N VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  50.0  55.0  55.0  50.0  58.0  58.0  56.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  80.0  77.0  21.0  21.0  -8.0  -5.0  -9.0 -28.0 VU VU VU VU  F  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.48

 WP062026 260603 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.20    137.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.