Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP062026 260603 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    129.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        61.1  66.7  71.9  75.1  79.2  73.0  82.2  67.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         17.8  13.2  12.2  10.9  12.2  14.1  13.7  22.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   106.0 119.0 106.0  67.0   0.0   0.0 -21.0 -36.0  F  F  F  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   55.0  57.0  57.0  54.0  55.0  64.0  61.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  91.0  26.0   5.0 -21.0 -17.0 -10.0 -12.0 -33.0 VU VU  N VF VF  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 20.30

 WP062026 260603 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90    141.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.