Rapid Intensification Guidance WP062026 260604 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 147.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.70 F TC SIZE [%] 148.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 85.7 79.9 80.2 79.4 75.8 64.8 55.6 53.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 19.2 22.7 22.2 24.6 23.7 31.4 36.9 45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 17.0 1.0 -28.0 18.0 -37.0 -57.0 -40.0 -78.0 U U VU U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 53.0 49.0 57.0 57.0 48.0 48.0 43.0 U U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -12.0 -26.0 -12.0 -18.0 -40.0 -32.0 -49.0 F F VF F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 19.64 WP062026 260604 06UTC Storm Located at : 36.90 147.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.