Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082026 260624 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 138.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 62.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.00 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 12.2 14.1 22.3 38.7 56.1 76.0 74.5 F F F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 106.0 99.0 75.0 64.0 18.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F F N N U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 99.8 65.5 35.2 17.6 F F F F N U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 27.0 9.0 1.0 9.0 84.0 96.0 36.0 U U U U U N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 58.0 58.0 60.0 54.0 45.0 49.0 U U U U N U VU U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -7.0 -11.0 -10.0 2.0 54.0 18.0 -7.0 N F F F N VU VU F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 7.2% 14.6% 10.9% 25kt / 24h 29.1% 57.5% 43.3% 30kt / 24h 17.2% 41.4% 29.3% 35kt / 24h 7.4% 40.6% 24.0% 40kt / 24h 6.9% 37.4% 22.2% 45kt / 36h 11.4% 42.1% 26.8% 55kt / 36h 8.0% 22.8% 15.4% 55kt / 48h 12.0% 2.6% 7.3% 70kt / 48h 3.8% 2.5% 3.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.48 WP082026 260624 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 138.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 82.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 12.2 14.1 22.3 38.7 56.1 76.0 74.5 U U U N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 57.0 58.0 58.0 60.0 54.0 45.0 49.0 F F F F N F VF F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -7.0 -11.0 -10.0 2.0 54.0 18.0 -7.0 N U U U N VF VF U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%