Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082026 260625 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 137.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 76.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 17.2 23.0 30.6 41.3 44.3 63.1 62.8 F F N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 98.0 83.0 63.0 52.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 F N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 72.2 51.7 25.1 7.3 N N N N U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 10.0 8.0 5.0 2.0 57.0 103.0 32.0 18.0 U U U U N F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 56.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 42.0 40.0 44.0 U U U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -8.0 -7.0 -1.0 27.0 34.0 8.0 6.0 N F F N VU VU U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.6% 22.1% 17.8% 25kt / 24h 33.6% 57.8% 45.7% 30kt / 24h 20.2% 45.0% 32.6% 35kt / 24h 15.6% 45.0% 30.3% 40kt / 24h 6.8% 40.3% 23.5% 45kt / 36h 7.2% 33.2% 20.2% 55kt / 36h 4.7% 16.9% 10.8% 55kt / 48h 10.5% 3.1% 6.8% 70kt / 48h 3.1% 2.0% 2.5% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.34 WP082026 260625 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 137.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 101.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.8 17.2 23.0 30.6 41.3 44.3 63.1 62.8 U N N N VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 56.0 57.0 57.0 59.0 42.0 40.0 44.0 F F F F F VF VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -8.0 -7.0 -1.0 27.0 34.0 8.0 6.0 N U U N VF VF F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%