Rapid Intensification Guidance WP082026 260627 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.40 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 11.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 152.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 66.3 71.3 80.2 85.7 74.7 56.4 42.3 41.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 13.5 3.2 -1.9 -3.9 -4.8 -4.9 -4.9 -4.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 66.0 82.0 36.0 29.0 60.0 80.0 42.0 20.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 57.0 64.0 67.0 60.0 50.0 44.0 43.0 U U N N N U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -23.0 -2.0 70.0 135.0 59.0 26.0 -9.0 -41.0 VF N VU VU VU VU F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 15.02 WP082026 260627 00UTC Storm Located at : 36.40 142.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.