Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260701 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    163.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  13.1  15.2  20.1  16.0  14.9  15.1  11.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  104.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 108.0 113.0 112.0 111.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   124.0 114.0 138.0 136.0  56.0  78.0  49.0  63.0  F  F VF VF  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%       10.1%        9.0%
 25kt / 24h       50.6%       66.3%       58.4%
 30kt / 24h       29.6%       44.0%       36.8%
 35kt / 24h       16.5%       44.0%       30.2%
 40kt / 24h       16.5%       44.0%       30.2%
 45kt / 36h       52.1%       79.5%       65.8%
 55kt / 36h       38.0%       62.5%       50.3%
 55kt / 48h       93.6%       88.2%       90.9%
 70kt / 48h       88.2%       68.7%       78.4%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       88.9%       75.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.90

 WP092026 260701 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20    163.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  13.1  15.2  20.1  16.0  14.9  15.1  11.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  75.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%