Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260701 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 162.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 50.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 42.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 8.9 9.8 13.1 19.7 15.9 15.2 13.8 F F F F N F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 105.0 105.0 105.0 106.0 110.0 113.0 111.0 111.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 80.0 101.0 107.0 89.0 76.0 24.0 51.0 23.0 N F F F N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 76.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 75.0 75.0 N F F N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 13.2% 18.7% 16.0% 25kt / 24h 63.2% 79.4% 71.3% 30kt / 24h 44.8% 67.9% 56.4% 35kt / 24h 29.1% 67.9% 48.5% 40kt / 24h 29.1% 67.9% 48.5% 45kt / 36h 64.1% 85.6% 74.8% 55kt / 36h 52.0% 75.8% 63.9% 55kt / 48h 90.6% 74.8% 82.7% 70kt / 48h 84.2% 73.5% 78.8% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 87.9% 75.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.90 WP092026 260701 12UTC Storm Located at : 9.80 162.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 89.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.2 8.9 9.8 13.1 19.7 15.9 15.2 13.8 U U U U N U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 75.0 76.0 72.0 72.0 72.0 75.0 75.0 N U U N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%