Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260701 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 161.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 50.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 8.80 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 8.9 7.4 11.8 13.1 17.9 19.4 12.7 11.6 F VF F F F N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 105.0 105.0 107.0 110.0 113.0 112.0 112.0 114.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 101.0 106.0 89.0 57.0 56.0 24.0 75.0 79.0 F F F N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 76.0 71.0 55.0 71.0 73.0 77.0 74.0 N F N U N N F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 20.7% 31.6% 26.1% 25kt / 24h 71.8% 85.1% 78.5% 30kt / 24h 58.0% 79.0% 68.5% 35kt / 24h 34.8% 79.0% 56.9% 40kt / 24h 34.8% 79.0% 56.9% 45kt / 36h 71.1% 87.5% 79.3% 55kt / 36h 61.9% 79.5% 70.7% 55kt / 48h 87.8% 76.7% 82.2% 70kt / 48h 80.1% 73.1% 76.6% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 88.5% 75.5% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.92 WP092026 260701 18UTC Storm Located at : 10.50 161.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 99.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 8.9 7.4 11.8 13.1 17.9 19.4 12.7 11.6 U VU U U N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 74.0 76.0 71.0 55.0 71.0 73.0 77.0 74.0 N U N F N N U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%