Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260702 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.90 160.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 75.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 64.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.30 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.0 11.7 10.4 18.3 15.5 15.6 16.1 17.0 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 107.0 109.0 111.0 113.0 112.0 114.0 115.0 120.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 106.0 90.0 56.0 76.0 24.0 51.0 65.0 69.0 F F N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 55.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 70.0 F N U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 59.0% 54.6% 56.8% 25kt / 24h 87.9% 91.5% 89.7% 30kt / 24h 83.4% 90.5% 87.0% 35kt / 24h 74.0% 90.5% 82.3% 40kt / 24h 74.0% 90.5% 82.3% 45kt / 36h 86.2% 91.9% 89.0% 55kt / 36h 85.0% 87.7% 86.3% 55kt / 48h 89.8% 82.9% 86.4% 70kt / 48h 82.9% 79.2% 81.0% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 87.9% 75.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.94 WP092026 260702 00UTC Storm Located at : 10.90 160.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 91.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 12.0 11.7 10.4 18.3 15.5 15.6 16.1 17.0 U U U N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 72.0 55.0 72.0 71.0 72.0 73.0 70.0 U N F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%