Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260702 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.70 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 65.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 47.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.0 13.4 9.9 7.7 12.5 14.2 13.8 19.7 F F F VF F F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 109.0 111.0 113.0 113.0 113.0 114.0 116.0 122.0 F F F F F F F F Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 81.0 71.0 85.0 99.0 70.0 97.0 98.0 87.0 N N F F N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 68.0 69.0 68.0 69.0 71.0 74.0 70.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 34.6% 38.2% 36.4% 25kt / 24h 81.1% 88.5% 84.8% 30kt / 24h 74.8% 86.6% 80.7% 35kt / 24h 51.4% 86.6% 69.0% 40kt / 24h 47.2% 86.6% 66.9% 45kt / 36h 85.7% 89.6% 87.6% 55kt / 36h 83.0% 83.5% 83.3% 55kt / 48h 98.7% 85.5% 92.1% 70kt / 48h 97.7% 79.8% 88.8% 65kt / 72h 62.6% 88.6% 75.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.02 WP092026 260702 06UTC Storm Located at : 11.70 159.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 103.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 11.0 13.4 9.9 7.7 12.5 14.2 13.8 19.7 U U U VU U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 68.0 69.0 68.0 69.0 71.0 74.0 70.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%