Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    156.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     91.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     86.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  17.0  15.9  14.4  18.9  11.4  17.0  18.8  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 113.0 113.0 114.0 114.0 115.0 122.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    62.0  57.0  55.0  45.0  41.0  76.0  40.0  38.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  70.0  68.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       82.9%       69.4%       76.1%
 25kt / 24h       95.4%       93.7%       94.6%
 30kt / 24h       95.4%       93.7%       94.6%
 35kt / 24h       94.1%       93.7%       93.9%
 40kt / 24h       85.6%       93.7%       89.6%
 45kt / 36h       89.1%       85.1%       87.1%
 55kt / 36h       85.4%       77.1%       81.3%
 55kt / 48h       59.9%       80.2%       70.0%
 70kt / 48h       45.8%       64.0%       54.9%
 65kt / 72h       62.6%       72.0%       67.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.12

 WP092026 260702 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.60    156.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  17.0  15.9  14.4  18.9  11.4  17.0  18.8  U  N  U  U  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  67.0  70.0  68.0  74.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%