Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  12.0  14.8  19.7  14.2  17.2  24.0  29.5  F  F  F  N  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 113.0 114.0 115.0 115.0 116.0 122.0 131.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    67.0  48.0  39.0  35.0  42.0  76.0  56.0  17.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       89.1%       70.3%       79.7%
 25kt / 24h       93.3%       89.6%       91.5%
 30kt / 24h       93.3%       89.6%       91.5%
 35kt / 24h       92.0%       89.6%       90.8%
 40kt / 24h       84.5%       88.4%       86.4%
 45kt / 36h       98.2%       82.7%       90.4%
 55kt / 36h       86.9%       75.0%       81.0%
 55kt / 48h       67.8%       59.0%       63.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP092026 260703 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    155.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.4  12.0  14.8  19.7  14.2  17.2  24.0  29.5  U  U  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  74.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  77.0  76.0  73.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -3.0   0.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%