Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260703 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    154.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.3  18.5  17.9  20.9  23.0  26.3  28.1  F  F  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  113.0 115.0 115.0 116.0 116.0 118.0 127.0 134.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  11.0  22.0  46.0  73.0  91.0  81.0 119.0  N  U  U  N  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       82.9%       58.2%       70.5%
 25kt / 24h       78.0%       74.0%       76.0%
 30kt / 24h       78.0%       74.0%       76.0%
 35kt / 24h       76.1%       74.0%       75.0%
 40kt / 24h       53.3%       67.7%       60.5%
 45kt / 36h       99.0%       68.8%       83.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.22

 WP092026 260703 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.90    154.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    35.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.3  14.3  18.5  17.9  20.9  23.0  26.3  28.1  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  72.0  71.0  71.0  69.0  70.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -1.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%