Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    153.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]    100.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     98.00            VF
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  18.2  21.7  19.8  18.3  21.1  28.0  29.2  F  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  115.0 117.0 116.0 115.0 117.0 122.0 132.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F VF VF
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    31.0  47.0  62.0  68.0 102.0  80.0 109.0  85.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       71.7%       34.8%       53.3%
 25kt / 24h       55.5%       40.9%       48.2%
 30kt / 24h       49.7%       37.6%       43.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.26

 WP092026 260703 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80    153.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    40.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  18.2  21.7  19.8  18.3  21.1  28.0  29.2  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  70.0  67.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -3.0  -1.0  -4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%