Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260704 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     95.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  12.3  14.9  16.9  23.3  26.1  22.0  33.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  116.0 116.0 117.0 119.0 128.0 134.0 130.0 123.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF  F
 Potential [kt]         20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0  20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    88.0  93.0  97.0  99.0  46.0  56.0  81.0  82.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  74.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.34

 WP092026 260704 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    150.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   145.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   145.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  12.3  14.9  16.9  23.3  26.1  22.0  33.7  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  75.0  72.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  74.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -3.0  -5.0  -2.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -3.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%