Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     85.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  24.4  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  117.0 119.0 123.0 128.0 134.0 132.0 126.0 118.0  F  F  F VF VF VF  F  F
 Potential [kt]         30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0  30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    90.0 109.0  93.0  93.0  93.0  93.0  93.0  93.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.1%        1.8%        2.4%
 25kt / 24h        4.8%        3.3%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.40

 WP092026 260704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.70    149.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   135.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   135.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.0  24.4  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  74.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%