Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260705 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.90 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 94.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 79.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 21.0 27.2 29.4 35.5 31.2 41.0 37.0 N N N N U U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 119.0 120.0 124.0 130.0 135.0 129.0 122.0 115.0 F F F VF VF VF F F Potential [kt] 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 103.0 108.0 74.0 50.0 34.0 63.0 57.0 18.0 F F N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 70.0 69.0 69.0 67.0 73.0 76.0 77.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 N N N N F F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.7% 2.1% 3.9% 25kt / 24h 5.8% 3.5% 4.6% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.44 WP092026 260705 00UTC Storm Located at : 12.90 148.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.8 21.0 27.2 29.4 35.5 31.2 41.0 37.0 N N N N F N VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 70.0 69.0 69.0 67.0 73.0 76.0 77.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -9.0 -4.0 -2.0 -4.0 N N N N U U N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 6.5% 3.2%