Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     98.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     93.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  29.1  31.1  30.8  29.2  36.3  38.1  40.4  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  125.0 131.0 135.0 134.0 128.0 121.0 112.0 110.0  F VF VF VF VF  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]         10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0  10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  57.0  51.0  39.0  65.0  48.0  36.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  78.0  81.0  83.0  80.0  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.52

 WP092026 260705 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.70    146.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   155.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   155.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.2  29.1  31.1  30.8  29.2  36.3  38.1  40.4  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  78.0  81.0  83.0  80.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -5.0  -4.0  -5.0  -4.0  -3.0  -3.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%