Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260705 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 146.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.0 28.7 30.2 27.1 31.8 36.4 37.9 37.9 N N N N U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 130.0 135.0 135.0 132.0 125.0 119.0 113.0 104.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F Potential [kt] 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 57.0 52.0 39.0 50.0 45.0 57.0 34.0 52.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 67.0 69.0 73.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -9.0 -5.0 -3.0 -4.0 -15.0 N N N F F N F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 WP092026 260705 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.00 146.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 155. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 155.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 117.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 29.0 28.7 30.2 27.1 31.8 36.4 37.9 37.9 N N N N N F F F Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 67.0 69.0 73.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -9.0 -5.0 -3.0 -4.0 -15.0 N N N U U N U VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 5.4% 2.7%