Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260706 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 150. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 150.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 94.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 37.0 36.2 38.1 42.9 45.4 49.9 40.1 N U U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 135.0 135.0 132.0 129.0 122.0 113.0 110.0 94.0 VF VF VF VF F F F F Potential [kt] 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 113.0 61.0 44.0 51.0 46.0 22.0 32.0 41.0 F N N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 67.0 68.0 70.0 73.0 75.0 79.0 81.0 N N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 0.0 -2.0 8.0 1.0 N N F F N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.60 WP092026 260706 00UTC Storm Located at : 14.30 145.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 150. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 150.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 6.20 F TC SIZE [%] 115.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.7 37.0 36.2 38.1 42.9 45.4 49.9 40.1 N F F F VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 67.0 68.0 70.0 73.0 75.0 79.0 81.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -4.0 -4.0 0.0 -2.0 8.0 1.0 N N U U N N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 12.4% 6.2%