Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260706 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 145. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 145.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 95.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.5 34.0 38.1 41.7 42.6 47.9 42.1 35.6 U U U VU VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 135.0 132.0 129.0 127.0 120.0 112.0 104.0 81.0 VF VF VF F F F F N Potential [kt] 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 44.0 51.0 36.0 31.0 32.0 36.0 31.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 70.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 78.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -5.0 -1.0 -3.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 N F F N N N U N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.62 WP092026 260706 06UTC Storm Located at : 14.90 144.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 145. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 145.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 36.5 34.0 38.1 41.7 42.6 47.9 42.1 35.6 F F F VF VF VF VF F Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 70.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 81.0 78.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -4.0 -5.0 -1.0 -3.0 3.0 8.0 4.0 N U U N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 18.3% 9.1%