Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260706 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 142.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 88.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 30.1 31.6 34.9 29.9 30.6 30.1 33.9 N N U U N U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 131.0 129.0 125.0 122.0 113.0 110.0 94.0 71.0 VF VF F F F F F N Potential [kt] 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 37.0 35.0 2.0 20.0 51.0 50.0 96.0 69.0 N N U U N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 78.0 80.0 78.0 82.0 83.0 83.0 80.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -7.0 -13.0 -12.0 F F N N F F VF F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.3% 0.0% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP092026 260706 12UTC Storm Located at : 15.40 142.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 140. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 140.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.0 30.1 31.6 34.9 29.9 30.6 30.1 33.9 N N N F N N N F Humidity 700-500 hPa 76.0 78.0 80.0 78.0 82.0 83.0 83.0 80.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -7.0 -5.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -7.0 -13.0 -12.0 U U N N U U VU U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 11.1% 5.6%