Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260706 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 141.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 96.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.5 32.2 33.9 30.7 32.2 27.0 34.8 30.3 N U U U U N U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 129.0 125.0 119.0 117.0 109.0 95.0 73.0 63.0 VF F F F F F N N Potential [kt] 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 35.0 2.0 20.0 58.0 33.0 65.0 65.0 23.0 N U U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 71.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 76.0 73.0 N N N N F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -14.0 -15.0 -15.0 F N N F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.6% 0.6% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP092026 260706 18UTC Storm Located at : 15.90 141.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.5 32.2 33.9 30.7 32.2 27.0 34.8 30.3 N N F N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 71.0 72.0 74.0 76.0 78.0 76.0 73.0 N N N N U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -3.0 -3.0 -5.0 -5.0 -14.0 -15.0 -15.0 U N N U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 12.8% 6.4%