Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260707 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 139.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 97.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.1 41.1 34.7 37.2 33.1 29.1 29.4 22.6 U VU U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 125.0 122.0 118.0 113.0 110.0 85.0 65.0 55.0 F F F F F N N N Potential [kt] 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 8.0 7.0 14.0 11.0 50.0 111.0 31.0 35.0 U U U U N F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 72.0 71.0 76.0 77.0 79.0 79.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -7.0 -5.0 -10.0 -8.0 -16.0 -11.0 -11.0 F F F F F VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.4% 0.5% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 0.8% 0.7% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP092026 260707 00UTC Storm Located at : 16.20 139.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.1 41.1 34.7 37.2 33.1 29.1 29.4 22.6 F VF F F F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 69.0 72.0 71.0 76.0 77.0 79.0 79.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -8.0 -7.0 -5.0 -10.0 -8.0 -16.0 -11.0 -11.0 U U U U U VU U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 19.7% 9.8%