Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260707 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     91.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  34.7  37.2  35.8  30.1  29.6  29.7  19.2  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]  122.0 118.0 113.0 109.0 104.0  74.0  63.0  55.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  40.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  14.0  11.0  35.0  78.0  81.0  48.0  23.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  71.0  74.0  75.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0 -10.0  -6.0 -11.0 -26.0 -15.0 -16.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        0.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        0.8%        0.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.68

 WP092026 260707 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.50    138.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   125.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   125.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        40.3  34.7  37.2  35.8  30.1  29.6  29.7  19.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  72.0  71.0  74.0  75.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -6.0  -5.0 -10.0  -6.0 -11.0 -26.0 -15.0 -16.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%       19.1%        9.5%