Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260707 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 136.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 99.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 98.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 37.8 36.8 35.8 24.3 25.2 18.9 16.5 U U U U N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 117.0 112.0 109.0 110.0 94.0 71.0 61.0 64.0 F F F F F N N N Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 11.0 38.0 43.0 100.0 65.0 50.0 48.0 U U N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 67.0 70.0 72.0 75.0 79.0 80.0 78.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -6.0 -1.0 -4.0 -17.0 -13.0 -8.0 -11.0 F F N F VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 10.2% 1.7% 5.9% 25kt / 24h 3.0% 2.0% 2.5% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP092026 260707 12UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 136.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.3 37.8 36.8 35.8 24.3 25.2 18.9 16.5 F F F F N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 67.0 70.0 72.0 75.0 79.0 80.0 78.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -6.0 -1.0 -4.0 -17.0 -13.0 -8.0 -11.0 U U N U VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 13.8% 6.9%