Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260707 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 135.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 100.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 99.00 VF IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.2 42.9 35.5 27.8 22.9 22.3 18.3 21.3 U VU U N N N F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 112.0 113.0 110.0 104.0 81.0 67.0 60.0 62.0 F F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 20.0 21.0 22.0 44.0 73.0 53.0 99.0 66.0 U U U N N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 78.0 80.0 82.0 85.0 86.0 84.0 80.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 0.0 -8.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 3.0 F N N F F F N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.7% 1.5% 5.6% 25kt / 24h 3.6% 2.3% 3.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.68 WP092026 260707 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.80 135.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 130. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 130.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.60 F TC SIZE [%] 131.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 38.2 42.9 35.5 27.8 22.9 22.3 18.3 21.3 F VF F N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 75.0 78.0 80.0 82.0 85.0 86.0 84.0 80.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -2.0 0.0 -8.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 3.0 U N N U U U N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 8.7% 4.4%