Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260708 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 98.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 96.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 28.0 24.9 24.2 24.1 20.2 21.4 18.6 U N N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 110.0 111.0 104.0 92.0 73.0 61.0 66.0 52.0 F F F F N N N N Potential [kt] 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0 24.6 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 44.0 62.0 73.0 53.0 100.0 67.0 3.0 U N N N N F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 84.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 80.0 77.0 F F F F F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -8.0 -11.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 5.0 -28.0 N F F F F N N VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 9.6% 1.5% 5.5% 25kt / 24h 4.7% 2.8% 3.7% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.66 WP092026 260708 06UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 133.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 135. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 135.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 130.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.6 28.0 24.9 24.2 24.1 20.2 21.4 18.6 F N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 82.0 84.0 85.0 85.0 84.0 80.0 77.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -8.0 -11.0 -8.0 -6.0 -2.0 5.0 -28.0 N U U U U N N VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 4.9% 2.4%