Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260708 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 96.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 86.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 24.4 28.6 27.2 20.4 19.5 23.6 17.8 U N N N N N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 104.0 82.0 76.0 64.0 62.0 62.0 26.0 F F N N N N N U Potential [kt] 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 40.0 8.0 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 29.0 80.0 98.0 60.0 67.0 61.0 -1.0 -10.0 N N F N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 73.0 F F F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -6.0 -11.0 -4.0 -8.0 -17.0 -25.0 -32.0 VF F F F F VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.7% 0.8% 1.2% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 1.7% 1.4% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.62 WP092026 260708 12UTC Storm Located at : 17.30 131.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 125. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 125.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 128.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.4 24.4 28.6 27.2 20.4 19.5 23.6 17.8 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 81.0 83.0 85.0 85.0 85.0 80.0 80.0 73.0 U U U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -14.0 -6.0 -11.0 -4.0 -8.0 -17.0 -25.0 -32.0 VU U U U U VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 6.5% 3.2%