Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260708 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 87.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 28.7 27.2 25.2 21.0 26.4 29.0 32.1 N N N N N N N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 104.0 92.0 76.0 74.0 64.0 66.0 52.0 3.0 F F N N N N N U Potential [kt] 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 50.0 9.3 U U U U U U U VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 80.0 99.0 60.0 44.0 88.0 26.0 -41.0 -25.0 N F N N F U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 74.0 75.0 78.0 80.0 78.0 78.0 73.0 N N F F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -11.0 -4.0 0.0 -4.0 24.0 -18.0 -42.0 F F F N F VU VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.0% 0.7% 0.9% 25kt / 24h 1.2% 2.1% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 WP092026 260708 18UTC Storm Located at : 17.60 130.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 115. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 115.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F TC SIZE [%] 119.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 24.3 28.7 27.2 25.2 21.0 26.4 29.0 32.1 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 71.0 74.0 75.0 78.0 80.0 78.0 78.0 73.0 N N U U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -6.0 -11.0 -4.0 0.0 -4.0 24.0 -18.0 -42.0 U U U N U VF VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 9.3% 4.7%