Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260709 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 129.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 86.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.8 27.2 19.4 18.1 19.2 20.8 29.0 24.4 U N N F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 82.0 76.0 67.0 64.0 62.0 64.0 20.0 0.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 24.8 3.6 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 83.0 75.0 56.0 71.0 59.0 -14.0 -55.0 -25.0 N N N N N U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 85.0 87.0 86.0 82.0 81.0 71.0 69.0 F F VF F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -18.0 -19.0 -27.0 -24.0 N F N F VF VF VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 0.7% 1.9% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.9% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 23.6% 1.2% 12.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.46 WP092026 260709 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 129.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F TC SIZE [%] 120.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.8 27.2 19.4 18.1 19.2 20.8 29.0 24.4 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 84.0 85.0 87.0 86.0 82.0 81.0 71.0 69.0 U U VU U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -4.0 -3.0 -4.0 -18.0 -19.0 -27.0 -24.0 N U N U VU VU VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 4.1% 2.1%