Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260709 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 129.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 69.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 63.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.80 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 20.3 18.2 23.1 20.6 25.8 29.2 19.7 N N F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 76.0 74.0 64.0 58.0 65.0 44.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N U U Potential [kt] 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 55.0 49.6 17.7 -3.3 U U U U U U VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 75.0 55.0 71.0 55.0 38.0 -50.0 -8.0 -20.0 N N N N N VU U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 75.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 71.0 70.0 N F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -3.0 9.0 -3.0 -22.0 -51.0 16.0 F N N U N VF VF U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.9% 1.8% 3.3% 25kt / 24h 5.6% 5.7% 5.7% 30kt / 24h 3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 35kt / 24h 2.0% 3.0% 2.5% 40kt / 24h 1.0% 2.0% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 42.5% 2.9% 22.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.36 WP092026 260709 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 129.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 110. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 110.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 113.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.3 20.3 18.2 23.1 20.6 25.8 29.2 19.7 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 75.0 75.0 77.0 76.0 75.0 71.0 70.0 N U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -2.0 -3.0 9.0 -3.0 -22.0 -51.0 16.0 U N N F N VU VU F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 4.1% 2.1%