Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP092026 260709 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  27.2  24.9  21.5  20.5  17.8  25.3  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   73.0  68.0  59.0  59.0  64.0  26.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  42.4  27.7   4.2  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  83.0  79.0  47.0   2.0 -26.0 -18.0 -11.0  N  N  N  N  U VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0  11.0  18.0   0.0 -15.0 -17.0  12.0  N  N  U VU  N VF VF  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.4%        1.4%        1.9%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%        4.6%        4.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.5%        2.8%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        1.7%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h       22.9%        1.6%       12.2%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        0.3%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.30

 WP092026 260709 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   100.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   100.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.1  27.2  24.9  21.5  20.5  17.8  25.3  17.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  73.0  71.0  70.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   7.0  11.0  18.0   0.0 -15.0 -17.0  12.0  N  N  F VF  N VU VU  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%