Rapid Intensification Guidance WP092026 260710 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.70 126.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 53.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.40 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 17.6 19.3 28.4 24.7 16.7 17.8 21.0 F F N N N F F N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 62.0 62.0 42.0 20.0 1.8 1.2 0.8 0.2 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 85.0 85.0 85.0 64.4 42.7 21.7 3.3 -0.8 N N N U U VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 6.0 -7.0 -52.0 -13.0 5.0 3.0 37.0 N U U VU U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 71.0 69.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 11.0 -16.0 -54.0 -7.0 11.0 0.0 -1.0 N U VF VF F U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 32.9% 21.2% 27.1% 25kt / 24h 28.3% 31.9% 30.1% 30kt / 24h 28.3% 28.4% 28.3% 35kt / 24h 28.3% 28.4% 28.3% 40kt / 24h 7.0% 28.4% 17.7% 45kt / 36h 9.2% 6.0% 7.6% 55kt / 36h 3.3% 2.0% 2.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.62 WP092026 260710 12UTC Storm Located at : 22.70 126.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 125.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 17.6 19.3 28.4 24.7 16.7 17.8 21.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 72.0 71.0 69.0 65.0 67.0 69.0 71.0 72.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 11.0 -16.0 -54.0 -7.0 11.0 0.0 -1.0 N F VU VU U F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1%